THE FUTURE OF THE GLOBAL COVERED BOND MARKET

Michael Marray

Executive summary
Chapter 1: Introduction
Chapter 2: The Issuers' perspective
Chapter 3: The evolving investor base
Chapter 4: Supply trends
Chapter 5: Rating agency methodologies
Chapter 6: National markets – Western Europe
Chapter 7: National markets – Central and Eastern Europe
Chapter 8: National markets – Nordic Region
Chapter 9: US issuers

Executive summary

  • Market developments
  • Market outlook

Chapter 01  Introduction 

Product evolution

  • Investor expansion

Market potential

  • New techniques

Challenges to growth

  • Property concerns
  • Pricing concerns

Market outlook

Parallel markets

  • UK structured bonds
  • German programme
  • Opposition to LBB
  • Further German developments
  • French market
  • Successful debut

Prospects for market expansion

Risk evaluation

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Chapter 02  The issuers’ perspective

Building a yield curve

Roadshowing deals

Key challenges for issuers

  • Reverse inquiry
  • Avoiding other issuers
  • Pricing debut offerings
  • Allocation of bonds
  • Satisfying different investor bases
  • Other currencies
  • Market saturation point

Basel II implications

Dual RMBS/covered bond programmes

  • The HSBC approach

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Chapter 03  The evolving investor base

Recent developments

  • Diversification of investments

Institutional investors

  • Central banks
  • Bank investors
  • Insurance companies/pension funds
  • Asset managers/hedge funds

Geographical spread

The new US investor base

  • Opening up the market
  • US demand
  • Future potential for issues
  • Challenges to issuers

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Chapter 04 Supply trends

Introduction

National markets

  • German issuance
  • Spanish issuance

Pricing trends

Pan-European products

  • The CIF programme

Secondary market liquidity

  • Jumbo issuance

Market making

  • Lack of commitment

Shipping and other assets in cover pools

  • New assets

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Chapter 05  Rating agency methodologies

Standard & Poor’s

Moody’s Investors Service

Fitch Ratings

Risk factors

But are investors taking note?

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Chapter 06  National markets – Western Europe

France

  • Current issuers

Germany

  • Pan-European issuers
  • Aareal’s programme
  • Meeting global demand
  • Outlook

Ireland

  • Legislative revision
  • Anglo Irish innovation
  • AIB issuance
  • DEPFA’s programme
  • Outlook

Italy

  • Market regulation
  • Structural subordination
  • Pricing concerns
  • Outlook

Luxembourg

The Netherlands

  • Outlook

Portugal

  • Market regulation
  • Recent issues
  • Outlook

Spain

  • Recent developments
  • The current market
  • Outlook

The UK

  • Bond structure
  • Important issuers
  • Meeting investor demands
  • Regulatory developments
  • Outlook

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Chapter 07  National markets – Central and Eastern Europe

Austria

Hungary

Poland

Switzerland

Turkey

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Chapter 08  National markets – Nordic region

Introduction

Denmark

  • New legal framework
  • Likely issuers and investors

Finland

Iceland

Norway

  • Cover pool requirements
  • Outlook

Sweden

  • Established framework
  • Major issuers

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Chapter 09  US issuers

Washington Mutual

Bank of America

Mortgage bond issue

Euro launch

Future bond models

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